Team Skally’s 2026 Market Outlook

This time of year is always insightful for us. We take a look in the rearview mirror to understand how the market performed—and why—then look through the windshield to anticipate what’s ahead. That perspective allows us to give our clients and insiders an edge. And that edge is all about outperforming the market.

We’re pleased to report that our 2025 predictions were on point, and our clients’ results exceeded the broader market with lower days on market and higher list-to-sales price ratios. Below is our outlook for 2026. As always, we look forward to the opportunity to serve you—and your family and friends—with the Team Skally Advantage.

1. Home appreciation will be relatively flat in 2026

There’s no shortage of predictions calling for a housing market crash in 2026. Persistent headwinds and attention-grabbing headlines—stubborn interest rates, rising unemployment, higher inventory levels, and ongoing affordability challenges—are fueling concerns about a housing bust.

While some areas of the country are experiencing (and will continue to experience) declines in home values, we see continued resilience on Seattle’s Eastside.

Several tailwinds are helping offset the negative news:

• Continued population growth and net migration to the Eastside

• Historically low housing supply relative to demand

• Low turnover, as many homeowners are holding onto their 3% interest rates and staying put longer

• A resilient stock market

One of the biggest “aha” moments we often share with our seller clients is this: you’ve already won the housing lottery. To put it in perspective, the median sold price in 2025 is up 88% compared to 2016. That means homeowners have enjoyed not only an incredible lifestyle, but also substantial long-term appreciation.

2. Interest rates will hover around 6%

Many buyers currently on the sidelines are waiting for interest rates to drop meaningfully. We believe they may be waiting longer than expected—and historically, when rates do come down, prices tend to rise.

This pattern has played out across the eight recessions we’ve experienced since 1969. During those periods, interest rates typically fell, followed by increased home appreciation. Of those eight recessions, home values increased in five, remained flat in one, and declined in only two. And even then, those declines were relatively short-lived.

Looking at the bigger picture, over the past 75 years, home values have increased in 68 of them—about 95% of the time.

As Christina likes to say: Marry the home and date the rate. Most homeowners refinance at some point. Today’s environment can be an opportunity to secure your dream home (with low to no competition and relatively good pricing) and lifestyle now, and refinance later when rates ease.

3. 2026 will see more closed sales

Last year, we saw a meaningful decrease in the number of closed sales compared to the year prior. Looking ahead, several demographic and lifestyle trends are likely to shift that momentum.

With an aging population, a growing need for assisted care, and continued multigenerational living, more homeowners are making the decision to sell. As sellers come to terms with today’s market realities, we expect more reasonable pricing and increased inventory in 2026.

With better selection and price stabilization, more buyers will re-enter the market—encouraged by greater choice and less competition. We anticipate supply leading first, followed by renewed demand, making 2026 a strong year for real estate activity.

We hope your holidays have been filled with your favorite people, moments, and traditions. We look forward to seeing you around the neighborhood.

Let’s make your lifestyle dreams come true!

Matt & Christina

Matt & Christina are Team Skally, top real estate agents in the Seattle Metro with expertise in luxury homes on the Eastside including Bellevue, Newcastle, Issaquah and Renton. Their client testimonials say it all - they deliver exceptional service and record-breaking results. Recognized as top agents on social media by Property Sparks, Diamond Award winners for best client service, Nextdoor’s Neighborhood Faves and regularly featured in online and print publications including Luxury Home Magazine, Puget Sound Business Journal, and Greet - Newcastle & Newport Hills Magazine. In addition to serving clients, Matt and Christina love family time with their two sons and Goldendoodle as well as volunteering in the community.